Can You Trust the Polls?
At the beginning of June a Reachtel poll showed that the government and Labor were running neck and neck in polls taken in Braddon and Longman where by-elections will be held on July 28.
On June 21 another Reachtel poll was conducted in Longman and Mayo.
These showed that the race was still a dead heat in Longman with the two party preferred vote coming in at 50% to 50% but in Mayo the government was looking at a rout with Georgina Downer trailing Rebekha Sharkie by 38% to 62%.
The polls have to be taken with an element of caution: Labor is well ahead on the primary vote in Longman but One Nation preferences get the Coalition back into the game.
There is a sense among government members that they’re on a winner with tax and Anthony Albanese’s criticism of Labor policy gives them confirmation.
Whether Bill Shorten’s captain’s call creates any lasting damage is an open question.
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